The 'no' campaign might have won...
but it is fortunately unlikely that there arguments made the difference. It is possible that most voters decided to vote 'no' on the basis that they do not understand the treaty and not because they believe the nonsense dished out by the anti-EU groups. However this is exactly why we have representative democracy, where the parliament, which has been democratically legitimized makes this type of decisions.
Ralf Grahn has pointed towards the option of giving countries which do not want to sign the treaty the option to join the EEA (European Economic Area). Jon Worth suggested that in another referendum Irish voters should decide if they want to leave completely or join the EEA. Libertas, and influential Astroturf group campaigning against the treaty has claimed that it is actually not Eurosceptic and would support the treaty with some additions, for example if Ireland could keep its Commissioner.
But I am not convinced of this idea of making yet another referendum. The Irish people have voted, from that consequences will follow. However at the present it is completely unclear how this consequences will look like, e.g. the Lisbon Treaty gets canceled completely, yet another treaty will be drawn up, ...or maybe those countries which have signed the treaty will try to go ahead one way or another. For now I will relax a bit (maybe I was bit to aggressive some comment threads). Lets see how things move on.
Update: I planned to let it rest for today, but no chance. Spiegel Online reports that Vaclav Klaus intends to stop the ratification of the treaty in the Czech Republic. The idea of a core Europe (or a multi-speed Europe) becomes more and more the only way to go forward. Spiegel also reports that Jean-Pierre Jouyet, a French Diplomat (I don't know how to translate EU-Staatssekretär), has suggested that all Nation which sign the treaty should go ahead and a new status for Ireland should be negotiated. This is close to some suggestions I have made before.
Friday, 13 June 2008
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1 comments:
RZ,
I expect the EU foreign ministers and the heads of state or government (at least most of them) to agree on the continued ratification of the Lisbon Treaty next week.
The Lisbon Treaty is dead for Ireland, for president Klaus (for the Czech Republic?) and perhaps for some other of the present signing states, but they will have to come up with their desired future status.
The vast majority of the present member states can be expected to ratify the substance.
Then they need a few amendments concerning entry into force, between the ratifying states.
If the political will to establish the new European Union is there, the process need not disrupt the French presidency too much.
The amended Lisbon Treaty could even enter into force on 1 January 2009, according to the desired timetable.
A piquant detail is, of course, what to do about the (Czech) presidency starting 1 January 2009, but I am sure that a solution is found even if president Klaus opts out of the new Union.
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